Debating Withdrawal: Harwood Response (Well, Kind of)
I should start out by stating that I may have jumped the gun a bit, because I don't disagree all that much with McCoy. His post came on the back of the "anti-war" demonstrations in Washington, DC this weekend into Monday and I assumed he had jumped ship for the immediate withdrawal likes of Cindy Sheehan, Michael Moore, Ramsay Clark, etc...
When I have time to sit down for a couple of hours, I'll post a response chock full of links to the appropriate documents. Within it I'll discuss the likely effects a U.S. withdrawal with have geo-politically if the U.S. pulls out before the Iraqi security forces are ready. Remember, Iran and Syria have a huge stake as well in how Iraq turns out. If the U.S. fails in its objectives of leaving a semi-democratic Iraq (and I'm more than good and open to the possibility that this never was the Bush Administration's objective) then we could face southern Iraq being subsumed de facto into Iran, central Iraq remaining a wasteland -- which would only increase the militancy of Iraq's Sunni community, and Iraqi Kurdistan up north inspiring Turkey to again start repressing their Kurdish minority, which in turn could start a border war up north.
And if I may be so crude to bring up more pragmatic concerns, what would happen to the flow of oil in Iraq if any of the above occurs? I assure you Iraq will not be pumping as much as it did in the past, which would hurt the global economy. Moreover, it's very possible that if Iran has disproportionate influence down south then whatever oil pumped will be diverted away from the West to the East, China and Russia specifically. I'm sorry but we all should be concerned that the mullahs of Iran could have large deposits of black gold to gamble with geopolitically -- especially as they remain determined to go nuclear --which they will undoubtedly sell to our competitors, Russia and China. Again, U.S. foreign policy is wrong in so many ways, but I'll take it anyday over our Russian and Chinese counterparts.
More later with the links to prove it.
When I have time to sit down for a couple of hours, I'll post a response chock full of links to the appropriate documents. Within it I'll discuss the likely effects a U.S. withdrawal with have geo-politically if the U.S. pulls out before the Iraqi security forces are ready. Remember, Iran and Syria have a huge stake as well in how Iraq turns out. If the U.S. fails in its objectives of leaving a semi-democratic Iraq (and I'm more than good and open to the possibility that this never was the Bush Administration's objective) then we could face southern Iraq being subsumed de facto into Iran, central Iraq remaining a wasteland -- which would only increase the militancy of Iraq's Sunni community, and Iraqi Kurdistan up north inspiring Turkey to again start repressing their Kurdish minority, which in turn could start a border war up north.
And if I may be so crude to bring up more pragmatic concerns, what would happen to the flow of oil in Iraq if any of the above occurs? I assure you Iraq will not be pumping as much as it did in the past, which would hurt the global economy. Moreover, it's very possible that if Iran has disproportionate influence down south then whatever oil pumped will be diverted away from the West to the East, China and Russia specifically. I'm sorry but we all should be concerned that the mullahs of Iran could have large deposits of black gold to gamble with geopolitically -- especially as they remain determined to go nuclear --which they will undoubtedly sell to our competitors, Russia and China. Again, U.S. foreign policy is wrong in so many ways, but I'll take it anyday over our Russian and Chinese counterparts.
More later with the links to prove it.
posted by Matthew Harwood at 10:46 AM
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